It’s time to cut out the guesswork
Retail media networks (RMNs) have certainly captured the industry’s imagination. What began as retailers monetizing their own digital real estate has quickly become one of the fastest-growing channels in advertising. Marketers have flocked to networks fielded by major retailers, which give brands access to valuable first-party shopper data and the opportunity to influence decisions at the point of sale. Such a proposition explains why RMN ad spending is projected to approach $100 billion by 2028.
But with rapid adoption comes real questions: How do you separate projections from proof? How do you know the dollars you’re investing are actually driving incremental sales, rather than taking credit for purchases that would have happened anyway? Advertisers are eager to tap into first-party data and shopper proximity, but many remain frustrated by the lack of standardization in measurement across networks.
Research Forrester conducted on behalf of Mastercard tells us that the most critical priority is improving ROAS. That urgency is amplified by the fact that 83.7% of U.S. retail sales still take place in physical stores, where digital metrics often fail to capture the impact of advertising.
What they are missing is a link that ties a brand’s exposure directly to transactions, whether online or in-store. Attribution in digital advertising historically has relied on proxies like clicks, impressions, or last-touch models. All suggest there’s a correlation, but none can prove causation.
To fill this void, Mastercard recently unveiled its new Mastercard Commerce Media network, which goes beyond retail and encompasses commerce more broadly. With insights from across the Mastercard transactions—which processed roughly 160 billion transactions in 2024 alone—and foundational reach to 500 million consumers enrolled in the program, Mastercard Commerce Media makes it possible to prove not just attribution, but also true incrementality.
Principles for a smarter era of commerce media
With the array of digital media available today, advertisers need results they can trust and, to get there, the industry needs new rules of the road. That’s especially true considering that advertisers relying on singular RMNs only have metrics and data from that retailer’s own ecosystem to go by, which means they risk missing significant components of the landscape. Intelligent commerce media built for today’s challenges will pair the vast reach of merchant and consumer networks with transaction-driven insights to generate measurable value for brands, publishers, and consumers alike.
As the ecosystem matures, three principles will define success:
Data must be actionable: For years, marketers were told that cookies, lookalike audiences, and impression counts would allow for precision. In reality, much of that spending bought scale without substance. Mastercard Commerce Media updates this equation by applying insights from anonymized, aggregated, and consumer-consented transaction data to place content in line with the advertiser’s goals, whether that looks like re-engaging lapsed consumers or reaching new audiences entirely. Advertisers using the platform have seen a proven up to 22X ROAS across retail, travel, dining, and other categories.
Scale only matters when it feels personal: Reach across industries, geographies, and payment types is only valuable when paired with precision. Campaigns on Mastercard Commerce Media run across environments where people are already engaged—banking apps, airline portals, and retailer programs—ensuring messages land in brand-safe contexts. Layered with personalization, that reach becomes more powerful: publishers see deeper engagement, advertisers gain clarity on performance, and consumers receive rewards that reflect how they already spend.
Measurement must be trustworthy: Advertisers are rightfully tired of opaque metrics. Clean first-party data, contextual targeting, and stronger measurement capabilities are increasingly seen as essential to improving customer lifetime value, lowering acquisition costs, and boosting return on ad spend. Mastercard Commerce Media addresses this by using proprietary card-linking technology to connect ad exposure directly to completed transactions, online and offline.
And beyond attribution, it can prove incrementality by connecting the dots between exposure, influence, and transactions. The result is transparency and accountability for advertisers, sharper insights for publishers, and relevant content for consumers, aligned to their demonstrated interests.
Why intermediaries are shaping the next wave of commerce media
Advertisers are rethinking where they place their bets. According to eMarketer, intermediary ad spend is projected to grow 27.2% in 2025, faster than both retail media (18%) and commerce media overall (19.5%).
The difference between these buckets comes down to scope: RMNs monetize their own properties, offering valuable first-party data but limited to a single retailer’s footprint. But commerce is broader than just retail, and therefore media servicing it should span any environment where transactions take place, from travel apps to digital wallets and beyond.
Mastercard Commerce Media sits at the intersection of these categories. Contrary to being limited to one segment, its reach across banks, airlines, merchants, and publishers, combined with global scale and data-driven insights, sets it apart. The benefits are cross-industry reach, consistent measurements across online and offline sales, and the ability to prove incrementality in ways single retailers cannot.
Businesses looking to future-proof their marketing efforts are evaluating efficacy and value. Full-scale commerce media will help them land on the right side of the balance sheet.
—
Nili Klenoff is EVP of commerce media and innovation at Mastercard, operating within Mastercard’s services business. Klenoff is responsible for leading the company’s commerce media business, bringing advertisers and brands a new channel to reach consumers with tailored content across a network of participating publishers.