Advertisers curious about whether to spend billions on TV commercials this year need to figure out what frightens them more — is it a fear of the unknown or a fear of missing out?

Madison Avenue is grappling with a host of question marks in the early part of 2025, and advertisers’ decisions will have a strong effect on the media industry’s annual “upfront” market, when U.S. media companies ranging from Amazon to Paramount Global try to sell the bulk of their advertising inventory.

Marketers try to line up their budgets in advance of this annual haggle, but so far, doing so is tough. It’s unclear whether President Trump’s economic policies and tariffs will dampen consumer demand. At the same time, TV networks only have so much ad space in must-buy big-audience properties like NFL games, award shows, and “Saturday Night Live.” Miss out now, and there may not be a chance to snag spots later.

“The only thing that is certain right now is that everyone had a plan coming out of Q4 and Q1. There was a sense of optimism,” says Ryan Gould, co-president of U.S. ad sales at Warner Bros Discovery. “Those plans have been scrapped, and everyone is in wait-and-see mode.”

Billions of dollars hinge on advertisers’ sense of the national mood. Ad commitments in last year’s “upfront” for primetime broadcast TV fell 3.5% to $9.34 billion, according to Media Dynamics Inc., while commitments for primetime on cable tumbled 4.8%, to $9.065 billion. The diminishing dollars put a spotlight on a media industry that is changing quickly as more people gravitate to streaming video and other means of accessing their favorite programs, movies, news and sports events.

Indeed, ad commitments to streaming video hubs rose a noticeable 35.3%, hiking to $11.1 billion from $8.2 billion in 2023’s market. The amount committed to streaming video was greater than that devoted to primetime broadcast or primetime cable — a first for the industry.

Projections for this year’s market have become difficult. Marketers “are all grappling with a landscape that is defined by tariff fluctuations,” says John Halley, president of advertising at Paramount.

Some media buyers project a downturn. Auto advertisers are seen having a tough time trying to figure out how to sell both electric and traditional vehicles, and retailers, restauranteurs and others are all waiting for more concrete signs of how the economy will move. There are also questions about how tariffs and Trump policies might affect one of TV’s biggest supporters, the pharmaceutical industry.

Still, bright spots remain. Advertisers seem eager to tie pitches and promotions to programs seen by a broader audience. “A lot of the growth we are projecting is in streaming and the NFL,” says one buying executive. “Without that, it would be a lot worse.”

TV networks may have new leverage in negotiations. Executives on both sides of the bargaining table acknowledge that downward pressure on streaming ad rates — spurred largely by a glut of new inventory coming into the market from Amazon Prime Video and Netflix — won’t be as severe as last year. And many are even expecting an uptick in ad rates (also known as CPMs and reflecting the cost of reaching 1,000 viewers) tied to linear cable and broadcast. “There is still more demand in linear broadcast than there are impressions to buy,” says Rita Ferro, president of sales for Disney Advertising

Some sellers are looking past the fog. After all, the last several upfronts have been mired by the coronavirus pandemic, supply-chain issues, inflation and fears of a recession. “It doesn’t feel that different than the past five years of having some question mark in the macroeconomic environment,” says Mark Marshall, NBCU’s chairman of advertising and partnerships.

Sports are likely to play a key factor in these annual deliberations. NBCUniversal and Amazon have already gone to market to sell ad packages tied to their new NBA rights deals, which kick in this fall. NBC has also been actively spotlighting time for its 2026 broadcast of Super Bowl LX. The company may feel some pressure to lock up sports deals in the current environment. NBC will turn over two nights of its schedule for part of the year to NBA games, betting that the matches can lure bigger dollars and rate gains than traditional entertainment. The company next February will have hours of Winter Olympics, Super Bowl and NBA All-Star inventory to fill as well, meaning it needs to win support for programming that typically commands higher prices.

How to sell off the stuff that doesn’t feature athletes or live spectacle? Give the buyers what they want.

In a tricky moment, advertisers want to be able to move their commitments around to match the tone of the times, executives agree. Such requests may include delaying ad spending, or shifting dollars from linear to streaming, or vice versa. “Yes, they probably need flexibility,” says Donna Speciale, president of U.S. advertising sales and marketing at TelevisaUnivision.

There are signs that some of the handwringing over the economy may also be overwrought. Several media companies have noted that so-called “scatter” advertising, purchased closer to airtime than inventory in the upfront, has held up well. At Disney, executives “are not seeing any pullback in March or April,” says Ferro. If advertisers truly need something in particular, says Speciale, they won’t. “I don’t see anyone scaling back in the areas that drive growth for them,” she says.

TV networks will have to hope strong recent activity is a strong indicator, but many acknowledge they will have to be willing to pivot so advertisers can react to whatever economic surprises might surface. Disney’s Ferro hopes clients will come to the table, rather than keeping money locked away in the bank.  “Sitting on the sidelines and not having a plan isn’t going to work,” she says.