For ad tech bosses, the IPO dream is no longer just a late-night fantasy, it’s starting to look like a real possibility.
“Look” being the operative word. Nothing’s guaranteed but there is momentum. MNTN’s splashy debut on the New York Stock Exchange last week didn’t just grab attention, it lit a signal flare. Priced at $16 a share on May 21, the company hit the market with a $1.2 billion valuation – right at the top of investor expectations. By Friday, it was already at $28. On Tuesday, it was around $26.
“This could be a meaningful moment for the CTV advertising ecosystem, even if MNTN itself is still relatively small in the grand scheme of AdTech,” said Karsten Weide, principal and chief analyst at W Media Research. “They’ve got a few strong things going for them: the backing of Morgan Stanley gives the IPO some institutional credibility, and the cachet of Ryan Reynolds as chief creative officer continues to generate attention well beyond the industry bubble.”
But as good as all this sounds for MNTN, its fate is far from sealed. At 16 years old, it’s a veteran in ad tech terms but one that’s trailing behind peers. The Trade Desk and Criteo had already crossed the billion dollar revenue mark by this point in their life cycles. MNTN, by contrast, is pulling in $225 million.
“This [the IPO] is a big tell in the market that reinforces the idea that not ad tech companies are equal in so far as the ones that are doing well are rooted in performance,” said Brian Mandelbaum, CEO of Attain, a consumer data platform focused on outcomes.
Here’s a closer look at that tightrope walk, based on the company’s S-1 filing with the SEC.
Since 2020, MNTN has posted a tenfold revenue jump and 769% customer growth, riding the momentum of CTV and performance-driven advertising. That’s impressive. But the gloss fades with a $32.9 million net loss in 2024. Yes, adjusted EBITDA came in positive at $38.8 million (up from $32.5 million the year prior), suggesting it’s still squeezing more out of operation, but it’s not enough to silence the skeptics.
And skeptics there are. Questions around MNTN’s legacy, especially from its earlier SteelHouse chapter – and ongoing concerns about transparency haven’t gone away. In today’s ad tech market – where hype no longer sells itself – that kind of baggage could weigh heavy with institutional investors.
For now, though, the market’s buying what MTNN’s selling – and that’s sending a clear signal to private equity firms. PE has long been the default exit for ad tech startups, typically offering seven to 10 times adjusted EBITDA. MNTN, by contrast, hit the public market trading at a staggering 32 times adjusted EBITDA – a multiple that puts it closer to The Trade Desk than a typical mid-market player.
“This [the MNTN IPO] could put a spanner in the works when it comes to private equity investors’ plans for ad tech,” said former MNTN executive Dan Larkman, now CEO of CTV advertising partner Keynes Digital. “Even if it settles at 30 times EBITDA, that changes the PE firm’s view of trying to pay seven to 10 times EBITDA to much higher.”
A recalibration of this magnitude could shift the entire trajectory for a swath of mid-sized ad tech firms. If public investors are once again willing to reward growth – especially in hotter corners of the market like CTV – the IPO window starts to look less like a last-ditch plan B and more like a viable, even preferable, way out.
But only for those with the stomach for it. Going public is no cake walk. It’s a gauntlet of competing stakeholders, relentless scrutiny and virtually no margin for error. That’s why so few ad tech companies, notably The Trade Desk and Criteo, have truly stuck the landing.
Still, if MNTN can handle the heat, hold the line and deliver in the quarters to come , it could change the calculus for others. After all, the risks are steep, but so is the upside.
Just ask an unnamed ad tech CEO who recently relocated to New York to be closer to the action as they prepare to take their own shot at going public.
“He [the CEO] told me as recently as last fall that the aim is to start that process in the near future,” said one ad exec who exchanged anonymity for candor on those plans.
Then again, “in the near future” is vague enough to stretch from next quarter to next year. And that’s the tension: the return of the ad tech IPO is far from guaranteed. Solid business fundamentals don’t mean much when the markets they rely on are anything but. A choppy macroeconomic outlook, shaken by trade wars, shifting tariffs and global uncertainty, has consumer spending wobbling. When that happens ad dollars tend to follow.
“MNTN isn’t about to challenge the big DSPs like DV360 or The Trade Desk,” said W Media Research’s Weide. “The functionality is much more streamlined by design for smaller advertisers, and might not be feature-rich enough for marketers at bigger advertisers. But where it could create pressure is among smaller demand-side players like StackAdapt or FreeWheel’s Beeswax.”
Needless to say, if there’s a moment to make the leap, this might be it.
There’s more maturity in the public market’s view of ad tech than there was a decade ago. Back then, hype outpaced clarity. Companies went public on arbitrage plays and fat margins on ad spend, with little transparency into how the sausage was made. The bubble burst, and the scars of rocky IPOs lingered. This time feels different.
“Investors have a better handle on the market than they did back then, but I still don’t think they know how to value it properly,” said Keynes Digital’s Larkman. “Ad tech companies don’t own the full ecosystem the way Google or Meta do. They control just a piece of the infrastructure, which makes it harder for investors to understand where the value actually lies – and how to price it accordingly.”