The ripple effects of U.S. trade tariffs are one of numerous factors expected to affect the global advertising market, resulting in a nearly $20 billion downgrade in ad spending.

According to data provided by marketing analytics firm WARC, growth forecasts for advertising spend have been downgraded by 0.9 percentage points (pp) to 6.7% in 2025 and 0.7pp to 6.3% in 2026, equivalent to a $19.8 billion cut. 

The tariffs, alongside tightening regulations in the European Union, squeezed margins, and low business and consumer confidence are some of the contributing factors that led to the downgrade.

Compounding all this is the rising risk of stagflation—or outright recession—across major economies around the world.

“The global ad market faces mounting uncertainty as trade tariffs, economic stagnation, and tightening regulation disrupt key sectors, leading us to cut growth prospects by $20 billion over the next two years,” said James McDonald, author of WARC’s report and director of data intelligence and forecasting. “Automakers, retailers, and tech brands, in particular, are now reining in ad spend amid rising manufacturing costs and mounting supply chain pressures.”

McDonald did note a bright spot: digital advertising, which he said “remains strong” with Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta set to control over half of the market by 2029.

TikTok’s uncertain future in the U.S. represents a bump to continued digital growth, but McDonald believes that “advertisers must be nimble to seize initiative in this shifting landscape.”