Advertisers curious about whether to spend billions on TV commercials this year need to figure out what frightens them more — is it a fear of the unknown or a fear of missing out?

Madison Avenue is grappling with a host of question marks in the early part of 2025, and advertisers’ decisions will have a strong effect on the media industry’s annual “upfront” market, when U.S. media companies ranging from Amazon to Paramount Global try to sell the bulk of their advertising inventory.

Marketers try to line up their budgets in advance of this annual haggle, but so far, doing so is tough. It’s unclear whether President Trump’s economic policies and tariffs will dampen consumer demand. At the same time, TV networks only have so much ad space in must-buy big-audience properties like NFL games, award shows, and “Saturday Night Live.” Miss out now, and there may not be a chance to snag spots later.

“The only thing that is certain right now is that everyone had a plan coming out of Q4 and Q1. There was a sense of optimism,” says Ryan Gould, co-president of U.S. ad sales at Warner Bros Discovery. “Those plans have been scrapped, and everyone is in wait-and-see mode.”

Billions of dollars hinge on advertisers’ sense of the national mood. Ad commitments in last year’s “upfront” for primetime broadcast TV fell 3.5% to $9.34 billion, according to Media Dynamics Inc., while commitments for primetime on cable tumbled 4.8%, to $9.065 billion. The diminishing dollars put a spotlight on a media industry that is changing quickly as more people gravitate to streaming video and other means of accessing their favorite programs, movies, news and sports events.

Indeed, ad commitments to streaming video hubs rose a noticeable 35.3%, hiking to $11.1 billion from $8.2 billion in 2023’s market. The amount committed to streaming video was greater than that devoted to primetime broadcast or primetime cable — a first for the industry.

Projections for this year’s market have become difficult. Marketers “are all grappling with a landscape that is defined by tariff fluctuations,” says John Halley, president of advertising at Paramount.

Some media buyers project a downturn. Auto advertisers are seen having a tough time trying to figure out how to sell both electric and traditional vehicles, and retailers, restauranteurs and others are all waiting for more concrete signs of how the economy will move. There are also questions about how tariffs and Trump policies might affect one of TV’s biggest supporters, the pharmaceutical industry.

Still, bright spots remain. Advertisers seem eager to tie pitches and promotions to programs seen by a broader audience. “A lot of the growth we are projecting is in streaming and the NFL,” says one buying executive. “Without that, it would be a lot worse.”

TV networks may have new leverage in negotiations. Executives on both sides of the bargaining table acknowledge that downward pressure on streaming ad rates — spurred largely by a glut of new inventory coming into the market from Amazon Prime Video and Netflix — won’t be as severe as last year. And many are even expecting an uptick in ad rates (also known as CPMs and reflecting the cost of reaching 1,000 viewers) tied to linear cable and broadcast. “There is still more demand in linear broadcast than there are impressions to buy,” says Rita Ferro, president of sales for Disney Advertising

Some sellers are looking past the fog. After all, the last several upfronts have been mired by the coronavirus pandemic, supply-chain issues, inflation and fears of a recession. “It doesn’t feel that different than the past five years of having some question mark in the macroeconomic environment,” says Mark Marshall, NBCU’s chairman of advertising and partnerships.

Sports are likely to play a key factor in these annual deliberations. NBCUniversal and Amazon have already gone to market to sell ad packages tied to their new NBA rights deals, which kick in this fall. NBC has also been actively spotlighting time for its 2026 broadcast of Super Bowl LX. The company may feel some pressure to lock up sports deals in the current environment. NBC will turn over two nights of its schedule for part of the year to NBA games, betting that the matches can lure bigger dollars and rate gains than traditional entertainment. The company next February will have hours of Winter Olympics, Super Bowl and NBA All-Star inventory to fill as well, meaning it needs to win support for programming that typically commands higher prices.

How to sell off the stuff that doesn’t feature athletes or live spectacle? Give the buyers what they want.

In a tricky moment, advertisers want to be able to move their commitments around to match the tone of the times, executives agree. Such requests may include delaying ad spending, or shifting dollars from linear to streaming, or vice versa. “Yes, they probably need flexibility,” says Donna Speciale, president of U.S. advertising sales and marketing at TelevisaUnivision.

There are signs that some of the handwringing over the economy may also be overwrought. Several media companies have noted that so-called “scatter” advertising, purchased closer to airtime than inventory in the upfront, has held up well. At Disney, executives “are not seeing any pullback in March or April,” says Ferro. If advertisers truly need something in particular, says Speciale, they won’t. “I don’t see anyone scaling back in the areas that drive growth for them,” she says.

TV networks will have to hope strong recent activity is a strong indicator, but many acknowledge they will have to be willing to pivot so advertisers can react to whatever economic surprises might surface. Disney’s Ferro hopes clients will come to the table, rather than keeping money locked away in the bank.  “Sitting on the sidelines and not having a plan isn’t going to work,” she says.

While economic uncertainty created by President Donald Trump’s tariffs is looming large over the 2025-26 upfront season, Spanish-language network executives say the White House’s trade policy has yet to prompt a pullback in spending, while citing the unique niche they occupy in the media marketplace.

The two main competitors, TelevisaUnivision and Comcast-owned Telemundo, both saw revenue decline during the first quarter, as they head into an upfront that, beyond the challenges facing linear TV, has been roiled by the uncertainty tariffs have brought to the larger economy.

Donna Speciale, whose going into her fifth upfront presentation as TelevisaUnivision’s president of ad sales and marketing, has brought in over 300 new clients during her tenure, including more than 125 this year alone, making up $500 million in new business.

“Clients definitely are being more cautious and asking about flexibility, but the return on investment they get on the Hispanic audience is so exponential that this is not an area they’re pulling back on,” “Speciale told TheWrap.

Though its content is not directly impacted by tariffs, TelevisaUnivision is exposed to tariffs through foreign exchange rates with Mexico and advertising.

In the first quarter, TelevisaUnivision’s U.S. ad revenue fell 11% to $354 million, primarily due to softness in linear from the absence of the prior year’s broadcast of the Super Bowl. Mexico — which makes up 25% of its total ad revenue — fell 16% to $209.4 million but grew 1% in local currency from strong private sector ad sales and demand for entertainment and sports content, including Juego de Voces, Liga MX and the Super Bowl.

Rafael Urbina, chief operating officer of TelevisaUnivision’s ViX streaming service, said it’s too early to tell what the impact on its content production will be, but that it’s prepared to shift its production capabilities from Mexico to the U.S. if needed. CEO Daniel Allegre has also said the company would look to reduce costs to mitigate the impact of tariffs.

“I don’t think it’s time to hit the panic button for anyone,” Urbina added. “We produce a ton of content in the U.S., and we’ll adjust to the changing rules for the game.”

Meanwhile, Telemundo’s ad sales are included in the larger NBCUniversal portfolio, which makes up Comcast’s media segment.

The unit reported a 7% drop in domestic advertising revenue to $1.9 billion during the first quarter of 2025, primarily due to lower revenue at linear networks from sports content volume and timing and tough political comparisons only partially offset by an increase at Peacock.

“We can’t predict the market and what the market will do,” NBCU’s president of advertising partnerships Alison Levin told TheWrap when asked about tariffs. “We are focused every day on consumer behavior and categories that we’re watching closely, but we are really focused on what we can control.”

The power of live

Spanish-language networks are going all in on live content and sports.

In the 2025-26 season, 70% of Telemundo’s content, or roughly 5,000 hours worth of programming, will be live, including Miss Universe, Noticias Telemundo, Billboard’s Latin Music Awards and the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

“Soccer is now considered to be the fastest growing team sport in America. We see 400% growth in fandom. The audience that Telemundo serves is innately connected to this,” Telemundo Enterprises chief administration and marketing officer Monica Gil told TheWrap.

TelevisaUnivision has also expanded its soccer rights with CONCACAF, adding theWomen’s Championship, Women’s Gold Cup, Nations League, and Champions Cup to its portfolio.

Meanwhile, ViX is leaning more toward unscripted formats for both linear and streaming, as well as content geared towards Latin music and artists through ViX Musica. It will also lean into its mobile app with short-form content, such as sports, news and entertainment highlights, and video podcasts showcasing Hispanic podcasters and creators.

Additionally, the streamer is planning to launch 50 to 100 minute-long episodes for vertical video, dubbed “micro series.” Around 40 will roll out in the back half of 2025, starting with dramas, before expanding to comedies and documentaries.

The Hispanic opportunity

Unlike most of the major networks, TelevisaUnivision and Telemundo are also touting their distinct advantage with Hispanic audiences.

Per Nielsen, Hispanic audiences spend an average of 25 hours per week watching TV, including nearly 14 hours on connected TV devices, and make up nearly 50% of all streaming viewership. U.S. Hispanics make up 19.5% of the population and represent over $4 trillion of gross domestic product (GDP) and over $1.9 trillion in annual spending.

“Hispanics are supercharging the economy. They are driving the demand. They’re deciding on trillions of dollars that are spent,” Gil said. “So we’re no longer a market niche. We’re really positioned to influence the growth of any business for years.”

Telemundo ranks as the No. 1 Spanish-language broadcast network with 962,000 total viewers in the first quarter of 2025 and had 12.9 million average monthly digital users for the period. Meanwhile, TelevisaUnivision, which invests almost $2 billion in Spanish-language content annually for streaming and linear, reaches a total of 28 million digital video viewers, a 60% year over year increase, and has surpassed 50 million monthly active users on ViX.

ViX, which is available standalone and in bundles with pay TV operators like Spectrum and DirecTV, offers a free tier, a $4.99 per month ad-supported premium tier and an $8.99 per month ad-free premium tier.

“We’re happy to take a lower subscription fee for the potential incremental output that we can deliver through advertising,” Urbina said, noting that the ad-supported premium tier has become the fastest-growing part of its business.

Speciale acknowledged that the flood of inventory from Amazon and Netflix resulted in a decrease in its cost per thousand impressions (CPMs) during last year’s upfront, but expects that pressure will eventually level off. “There is definitely a lot more inventory, but given we have a huge unique proposition, we’re in our own ecosystem,” she said.

Brand execs are always blind-sided when ad campaigns blow up in their faces, but the pain is usually self-inflicted. What’s a Chief Marketing Officer to do?

As if Nike didn’t have enough problems (sales slump, stale designs, unfocused branding, executive shakeup), the company recently found itself on center stage in one of those increasingly frequent cultural sideshows that masquerade as news.

In Nike’s case, the culprit was a branded slogan that appeared prominently on giant billboards during a recent marathon in London. In bold black letters on a solid field of deep red—“Never Again,” on the top line and “Until Next Year” on the bottom.

It was part of a campaign by Nike to populate the race route with inspiring messages. Hardcore marathon runners often gasp as they collapse across the finish line: “I’m never doing that again.” But a year later they’re back to try again. Some runners got the joke but most and many others did not.

To many people, “never again” is better known as a reference to the Holocaust.

To them, Nike’s message was unclear or tone deaf.

A broadcast journalist writing for the British magazine The Spectator called the use of it in a commercial ad “a disgrace.” The billboards disappeared, Nike apologized, and a major marketing investment went down the drain. It would appear the company was so focused on its athletic customers that it couldn’t see what non-runners saw.

Nike is the latest in a growing list of major brands that have been stung by marketing flops that “seemed like a good idea at the time.” One of the lesser-known legends of botched branding was an expensive, edgy ad campaign for Diet Coke in 2014. The target audience was young professionals in Silicon Valley and New York City. In a TED Talk, graphic designer Chip Kidd showed pictures of the company’s big launch. Coke bought all the ad space in one of New York’s busiest subway stations. All in one night, the walls were plastered with huge signs that read: “You moved to New York with the clothes on your back, the cash in your pocket and your eyes on the prize. You’re on. Coke.”

But the way the graphics were arranged, the tagline appeared to read, “You’re on Coke.”

Tunnel vision. As a retail industry consultant I see this up close and all too frequently.

The public relations dustups at Nike, Coke and many others are symptoms of a much bigger problem—when brands lose their way and need to recapture the spotlight, stress sets in and mistakes are made. It seems pretty simple to think of engaging consumers as a model to see more broadly, skip tunnel vision and look around a corner or two.

In a season of uncertainty, the retail industry will be watching closely to see if one or both—or neither—can steer through some difficult and necessary turns.